OSCARS 2016: Winners Predictions

Well, here we are again. Let's break it down:

Best Picture

Will win: The Revenant

Could win: Spotlight

Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Nominee prediction results: 7/8

I rarely agree with the Academy and this year is no exception. It is clear that The Revenant is the current favorite, with former frontrunner Spotlight very close behind. There could be a surprise but I doubt it. The sad thing is that the real masterpiece of the year has very little chance of winning.

Best Director

Will win: Alejandro G. Iñárritu (The Revenant)

Could win / Should win: George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)

Nominee prediction results: 4/5

Iñárritu did a fine job but not better than last year's Birdman. I'm not a fan of that movie but he did a great work there and awarding him twice would be just too much. Besides, Miller is the one to reward for the best action movie in a very long time.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Will win / Should win: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)

Could win: Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)

Nominee prediction results: 4/5

It's time. That simple. He's performance is very good and he just deserves it after so long. Yet, many people still thing he shouldn't win. We will see if they have strong voices.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Will win / Should win: Brie Larson (Room)

Could win: No one else really...

Nominee prediction results: 5/5

I was surprised to be right about Lawrence being nominated again. But whatever, no one has any chance of winning except Larson. Ronan was a frontrunner early on but the awards started flying towards Larson. She certainly deserves it.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Will win: Sylvester Stallone (Creed)

Could win: Tom Hardy (The Revenant)

Should win: Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)

Nominee prediction results: 3/5

Now this is hard to predict. This category is frequently predictable but not this year. I'm predicting Stallone winning because he's very well liked and the performance is really touching, he gives the movie a father figure that just works. Rylance performance though is very subtle but just right, not flashy, very paced. And Tom Hardy could win if The Revenant just sweeps.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Will win / Should win:: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)

Could win: Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)

Nominee prediction results: 4/5

Vikander is the heart of the movie and we all know she should be on the leading category and not in this one. However, category fraud will give her her first Academy Awards. Only Winslet could spoil but she has only won awards when Vikander wasn't there. Besides, Vikander has Ex Machina and Testament of Youth in her favor.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will win / Should win: The Big Short

Could win: Room

Nominee prediction results: 4/5

The movie is just too good to leave empty handed. However, there are many fans of Room that may want to give another accolade to the movie.

Best Original Screenplay

Will win: Spotlight

Could win: Straight Outta Compton

Should win: Ex Machina or Inside Out

Nominee prediction results: 4/5

Sorry, I just couldn't decide for only one option as I loved Ex Machina and Inside Out. They were true beautiful stories, very well told and with fantastic scenes, all thanks to the screenplays. However this prize is probably Spotlight's. If it loses the top prize, this is the consolation prize. Yet, Straight Outta Compton could spoil in a year of controversy in the industry.

Best Animated Feature Film

Will win / Should win: Inside Out

Could win: ø

Nominee prediction results: 3/5

Inside Out is this year animation masterpiece although the list of nominees was just perfect this year.

Best Foreign Language Film

Will win: Son of Saul (Hungary)

Could win: Mustang (France)

Should win: You know...

Nominee prediction results: 4/5

I was happy to see my country nominated for the first time. That's always great. However, the Hungarian entry has won almost every prize this season (they do love WWII) and if someone spoils their party it will be the Turkish movie that represents France.

Best Documentary Feature Film

Will win / Should win: Amy

Could win: The Look of Silence

Nominee prediction results: 2/5

I loved Amy. So contemporary and, sadly, timeless. Yet, the choices are so varied a surprise could happen.

Best Documentary Short Subject

Will win: Body Team 12

Could win: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah

Should win: A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness

Nominee prediction results: 3/5

Random guess. Didn't watch any of these. Sorry.

Best Live Action Short Film

Will win: Shok

Could win: Stutterer

Should win: No idea...

Nominee prediction results: 3/5

Didn't see them...

Best Animated Short Film

Will win: Prologue

Could win: Sanjay's Super Team

Should win: Bear Story

Nominee prediction results: 3/5

Another random guess based on images from all the short films.

Best Original Score

Will win / Should win: The Hateful Eight

Could win: Carol

Nominee prediction results: 4/5

Ennio Morricone is a legend and he deserves a prize for his work, even if he already has an honorary one.

Best Original Song

Will win: "Til it Happens to You" from The Hunting Ground

Could win: "Earned it" from Fifty Shades of Grey

Should win: "Manta Ray" from Racing Extinction

Nominee prediction results: 2/5

This is the crazy category, when anything can happen and it did. Three music stars nominated. I think it's Warren's time to finally win and Gaga fans can go insane.

Best Sound Editing

Will win / Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Nominee prediction results: 4/5

That damn race! Just perfect.

Best Sound Mixing

Will win / Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could win: The Revenant

Nominee prediction results: 4/5

So much action cannot go unnoticed.

Best Production Design

Will win / Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could win: The Danish Girl

Nominee prediction results: 3/5

Those cars are insane. So much work and it was all worth it.

Best Cinematography

Will win / Should win: The Revenant

Could win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Nominee prediction results: 4/5

Lubezki has won twice so maybe one would think it is too much. But it isn't. The guy is just brilliant. Although I wouldn't mind Seale or that poor Deakins winning.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Will win / Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could win: The Revenant

Nominee prediction results: 2/3

Every character is an example of why Mad Max deserves this award.

Best Costume Design

Will win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could win: The Revenant

Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road or The Danish Girl

Nominee prediction results: 4/5

My runner up is The Revenant because many would vote for them for any category. Not me. I like all nominees but that dystopian future is just too good, on men and women.

Best Film Editing

Will win / Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Nominee prediction results: 3/5

The fact that Spolight is here is he only reason why the movie could still win Best Picture. Yet, it's a year of action movies so it would be shameful not to award this prize to any of the two action packed picture in the roster.

Best Visual Effects

Will win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Could win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Should win: Ex Machina

Nominee prediction results: 4/5

The Revenant here means the Academy REALLY loved that movie because I have seen better FX in films not nominated. It's just nonsense. I take a leap of fate here, even if it may not be a very likely choice.

TOTALS

Mad Max: Fury Road > 6

The Revenant > 4

Amy, Body Team 12, Creed, The Big Short, The Danish Girl, The Hateful Eight, The Hunting Ground, Inside Out, Prologue, Room, Son of Saul, Spotlight, Star Wars: The Force Awakens > 1 each

This is it people. Let's hear it tomorrow night!

Awards

   He sipped a bit of the coffee and burned his tongue right away. It was too hot and he was in a hurry, so nothing different could have happened. He decided to put at least half the pot he had made in a thermos and just take that in the car. It was pitch black outside and the van would pick him up in any minute.

Of course he hadn’t had any sleep at all. He usually went to sleep very late and he had in the auditorium at five in the morning, with didn’t really gave him much time to do anything. He decided to not even try to sleep and shower and get ready at around two of the morning, se he could have breakfast before they came to pick him up at 3:30 AM.

 But as things that shouldn’t happen always find a way of becoming truth, he dozed off for a while and he lost the time to have a proper breakfast, which resulted in him burning his tongue and running around his house like an idiot. The van arrived only minutes afterwards so he just took his thermos with him and went as fast as he could, although the elevator apparently had a problem with that, as it felt it took double the time to get to the ground floor.

  There he finally met the man that drove the van, who he apologized to. The man didn’t even acknowledge that an explained him that he needed to check him for envelops, microphones, cameras and so on. The poor guy that hadn’t slept more than half an hour wasn’t sure he was getting what the driver of the van was telling him. The man attempted to touch him but he just pulled apart in fear.

       - “It’s for security, Mr. Thomas!”

 Somehow, that enunciation woke him up a bit and he decided to stay very still as the man checked his pockets (jacket and pants), felt everything he had to feel and even asked him to take off his shoes. He complied to everything as if he was in a boot camp which made them loose about fifteen minutes of their time, that he had thought to be precious. After checking the shoes and even the socks, the man finally told him to follow him to the van.

 Mr. Thomas sat down in the far back, not wanting to talk at all with that man during the ride. After all, it was a half-hour drive from his house to the headquarters of the services firm where they had to pick up a suitcase that had all the information they needed by five in the morning in the theatre. He knew he wasn’t the only idiot waking up at such time of the day and that made him feel a little better about himself. So when the van started moving towards the highway, he was a bit more awake than before.

 As they travelled through an unusual cold morning in Los Angeles, light still absent, he decided to finally have some coffee and just enjoy the ride. He decided to pay attention to the world and the world revealed itself to him in a way he had never seen. After all, it wasn’t everyday that he woke up at this time of day, when every single person that was up seemed to have a certain thing about them.

 The driver was the first in that list. He was a very tall guy, the kind that when they bend over it looks ridiculous. When he was checking Mr. Thomas’s shoes, his body contorted in the most funny shape ever and the owner of those shoes almost laughs, partially because of the time of day but also because tall people always looked funny in the simplest positions. Besides his height, he had this weird thing where the mustache was the same color of his hair, which was blonde, but the eyebrows were very black. Somehow it looked odd, as if he was a big Mr. Potato Head.

 The next person that drew his attention was a lady on the street. They stopped in a red light for a while and he saw this elderly woman, body curved as it was humanly possible, walking her Chihuahua in the middle of the night. What was curious about the woman was not at all the fact that she was walking her dog at that time, which he knew to be very common among dog owners, but that she was wearing the strangest combination of clothing. She had a large overcoat, the color of flamingos. Under that she had a flowery shirt that looked too big for her, kaki shorts and fluffy sleepers with a baseball cap crowning her head.

 She was a sight to behold and that was only for a couple of minutes, before they got in the highway and he only saw some cars and a couple of dead pigeons that had been killed by crazed drivers or just by people that had not realized that birds wee not the brightest creatures in the universe. When he saw those bodies, he couldn’t stop thinking about the poor man or woman that had to clean that up from the asphalt of the highway as his or her job. That thought made him realize he was a very lucky guy with a very good job and that he had no right to complain about something as silly as waking up early in the morning.

 It seemed that in no time they were in downtown Los Angeles, stopping in almost every stupid traffic light. He saw his watch nervously, telling himself that if he was a couple of minutes late it wouldn’t really be that big of problem as the show began a little later than five. But then he remembered he had to pass the information to the people than made a nice little presentation video for people at home to get what the presenters were saying. He worried again when he thought of this.

 It was right then when they finally got to the skyscraper where the services offices were located. He got out of the van and remembered what they had told him: he had to go the information desk and ask for Tamara Parks. Then, they would direct him to the top floor where Ms. Parks would give him the briefcase with all the information they needed in the theater.

 So he did just that. The man at the information desk was a security guard; obviously the person that tactually worked there had not yet arrived. The man gave him a badge and told him to take the middle elevator and press the button to the top floor. Said elevator took forever to arrive and also to get up there. It seemed to be going for ages. He checked his watch several times and repeated to himself that they were on time and that the theater was not that far away. He realized the elevator had a mirror so he decided to check his suit for stains or anything unusual, his teeth and his face. It was right then the elevator decided to stop and open.

 This startled him but no one was outside waiting. He had to walk to an office and wait there in a waiting room for the woman. But he didn’t have to wait at all. She was there and greeted him with a big smile that he would be unable to do at that time of day. She asked him to follow her to a conference room and there he found the briefcase but also two big guys, with black glasses and earpieces. Somehow, it was funny to see them there, as if they were thing to put in a room like plants or statues.

 Ms. Parks explained they were the security team assigned to join him to the theater to ensure all the information got there safely and that only the people that had to see it saw it and no one else. They checked everything in five minutes and then they were good to go. He left the smiling Parks in the top floor but was joined in the elevator by the two big guys who didn’t smile at all.

 He was a bit relieved when he got to the van and this time the driver decided to speed up as he realized time was running short. The theater was not far away and, with the presence of the two big guys, Mr. Thomas had no opportunity to see the outside world, mainly because he was trapped between those two mountains that were apparently people.

 Exactly at five in the morning, they pulled off outside the theater and there was already someone waiting, telling her they were a bit late which was a lie. Apparently people there were very stressed. The four of them walked, almost jogged, to the theater and there straight to the master room when a lonely woman was waiting for them behind a computer. It was Mr. Thomas job to only look at her work like crazy for the next twenty minutes, helped only by another man.

 When the presentation was done, Thomas’s work was done. The big men would guard the briefcase and   he could just sit in the back of the theater and hear the name of the nominees from there. At that point, he was finally awake and also very excited because he knew he was part of something that meant a lot to many people and that was, somehow, the pinnacle of their efforts and the most coveted prize in the cinema industry.

PREDICTIONS: Academy Awards

Here are my predictions. I have seen many of these movies. The only real shots in the dark are in the short subject categories, which I haven't seen at all. I'll try to see the ones that get nominated.

After my predicted five, I've decided to put an alternative nominee, just for fun.

Please feel free to comment and share your thoughts!

Best Picture

* The Big Short

* Bridge of Spies

* Carol

* Mad Max: Fury Road

* The Martian

* The Revenant

* Room

* Spotlight

If 9 or 10 I'd add the following two movies:

* Inside Out

* Straight Outta Compton

Best Director

* The Big Short -- Adam McKay

* Mad Max: Fury Road -- George Miller

* The Martian -- Ridley Scott

* The Revenant -- Alejandro G. Iñárritu

* Spotlight -- Tom McCarthy

Alt: Carol -- Todd Haynes

Best Actor in a Leading Role

* Steve Carrell -- The Big Short

* Matt Damon -- The Martian

* Leonardo DiCaprio -- The Revenant

* Michael Fassbender -- Steve Jobs

* Eddie Redmayne -- The Danish Girl

Alt: Bryan Cranston -- Trumbo

Best Actress in a Leading Role

* Cate Blanchett -- Carol

* Brie Larson -- Room

* Jennifer Lawrence -- Joy

* Charlotte Rampling -- 45 Years

* Saiorse Ronan -- Brooklyn

Alt: Alicia Vikander -- The Danish Girl

Best Actor in a Supporting role

* Christian Bale -- The Big Short

* Idris Elba -- Beasts of No Nation

* Mark Ruffalo -- Spotlight

* Mark Rylance -- Bridge of Spies

* Jacob Tremblay -- Room

Alt: Sylvester Stallone -- Creed

Best Actress in a Supporting role

* Jane Fonda -- Youth

* Jennifer Jason Leigh -- The Hateful Eight

* Rooney Mara -- Carol

* Alicia Vikander -- The Danish Girl

* Kate Winslet -- Steve Jobs

Alt: Kristen Stewart -- Clouds of Sils Maria

Best Adapted Screenplay

* The Big Short -- Adam McKay and Charles Randolph

* Brooklyn -- Nick Hornby

* Carol -- Phyllis Nagy

* Room -- Emma Donoghue

* Steve Jobs -- Aaron Sorkin

Alt: The Martian

Best Original Screenplay

* Bridge of Spies -- Matt Charman, Ethan Coel and Joel Cohen

* The Hateful Eight -- Quentin Tarantino

* Inside Out -- Josh Cooley, Pete Docter and Meg LeFauve

* Spotlight -- Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer

* Straight Outta Compton -- Andrea Berloff, Jonathan Herman, S.Leigh Savidge and Alan Wenkus

Alt: Ex Machina

Best Foreign Language Film

* Embrace of the Serpent -- Colombia

* Labyrinth of Lies -- Germany

* Mustang -- France

* Son of Saul -- Hungary

* Theeb -- Jordan

Alt: The Brand New Testament -- Belgium

Best Animated Feature Film

* Anomalisa

* The Good Dinosaur

* Inside Out

* The Peanuts Movie

* Shaun the Sheep 

Alt: Minions

Best Cinematography

* Carol

* Mad Max: Fury Road

* The Martian

* The Revenant

* Sicario

Alt: The Hateful Eight

Best Costume Design

* Brooklyn

* Carol

* Cinderella

* The Danish Girl

* Mad Max: Fury Road

Alt: The Revenant

Best Film Editing

* The Big Short

* Bridge of Spies

* Mad Max: Fury Road

* The Martian

* The Revenant

Alt: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

* Mad Max: Fury Road

* Mr. Holmes

* The Revenant

Alt: Black Mass

Best Production Design

* Bridge of Spies

* Carol

* Crimson Peak

* The Danish Girl

* The Martian

Alt: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Original Score

* Bridge of Spies

* Carol

* The Danish Girl

* The Hateful Eight

* Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Alt: Sicario

Best Original Song

* "Feels Like Summer" from Shaun the Sheep
* "I'll See You In My Dreams" from I'll See You In My Dreams

* "See You Again" from Furious 7
* "Simple Song #3" from Youth

* "Til' It Happens to You" from The Hunting Ground

Alt: "Love Me Like You Do" from Fifty Shades of Grey

Best Sound Editing

* Jurassic World

* Mad Max: Fury Road

* The Martian

* Sicario

* Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Alt: The Revenant

Best Sound Mixing

* Mad Max: Fury Road
* The Revenant

* Sicario

* Star Wars: The Force Awakens

* Straight Outta Compton

Alt: Bridge of Spies

Best Visual Effects

* Ex Machina

* Jurassic World

* Mad Max: Fury Road

* The Martian

* Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Alt: The Revenant

Best Documentary Feature

* Amy
* He Names Me Malala
*The Hunting Ground
* Listen To Me Marlon
*The Look of Silence

Alt: Where to Invade Next

Best Documentary Short

* Body Team 12
* Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
* Last Day of Freedom
* Minerita
* My Enemy, my Brother

Alt: Starting Point

Best Animated Short Film

* Bear Story (Historia de un oso)

* If I was God

* An Object at Rest

* Sanjay's Super Team

* We Can't Live Without Cosmos

Alt: My Home (Chez moi)

Best Live Action Short Film

* Ave Maria
* Bad Hunter
* Day One
* Shok
* Stutterer

Alt: Bis Gleich (Till Then)

TOTAL COUNT

Mad Max: Fury Road > 9
Carol & The Martian > 8
The Revenant > 7
The Big Short, Bridge of Spies & The Danish Girl > 6

Room, Spotlight & Star Wars: The Force Awakens > 4

Brooklyn, The Hateful Eight, Inside Out, Sicario, Steve Jobs & Straight Outta Compton > 3

The Hunting Ground, Jurassic World & Shaun the Sheep > 2

All other movies would get one nomination each.